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World Steel Association 2017 global Steel needs to reach 1.62

Oct 31, 2017

The World Steel Association 16th released a October 2017 update of the 2017-2018-year short-term steel demand forecast. Global steel demand is forecast to reach 1.6221 billion tonnes in 2017, and global steel demand will reach 1.6481 billion tonnes in 2018.

The World Steel Association predicts that in 2017 the global demand for steel, excluding China, will grow by 2.6% to 856.4 million tonnes, up 3% to 888.24 million tonnes in 2018. China's steel demand is expected to grow by 3% in 2017, with global steel demand growing 2.8%.

Narendran, chairman of the World Steel Association's Market Research Committee, said: "This year, the global steel market has continued to be good, the cyclical rebound has continued to strengthen the steel market in advanced economies and developing economies is doing better than expected, The steel market in the north-east and Central Africa is still weak. The World Steel Association pointed out that 2018, China's steel demand growth momentum slowed, economic restructuring continued to deepen and the introduction of tougher environmental measures will curb the demand for steel, it is predicted that in 2018, China's steel demand is difficult to rise year-on-year.

In the short term demand forecast for steel, released in April 2017, the World Steel Association has pointed out that the global economy faces many risks, such as the rise of populism and protectionism, the vagaries of US policy, the uncertainty of political change in the EU's major countries, and the slowdown in China's economy, although these risk factors remain, but their impact has weakened. In view of this, the World Steel Association believes that since the 2008 economic crisis, the current various risk factors have been effectively curbed, and the escalation of geopolitical tensions on the Korean peninsula, China's debt problems and the rise of protectionism in many areas, will still constitute a major risk factor for the future.

The World Steel Association predicts that global steel demand growth will slow in 2018, largely constrained by a slowdown in China's steel demand and other areas that will remain current demand.

As a result, world steel demand is recovering well, driven mainly by cyclical rather than structural growth factors. And the lack of a strong growth engine to replace China, technological innovation and environmental pressure brought about by the decline in steel use strength, and other factors will have a significant impact on future steel demand. ”

Global growth momentum will boost demand for steel in the short term.

This year, despite continued volatility in some major financial markets and concerns over overvalued stock markets, investment confidence in most regions has continued to strengthen, with strong momentum in developed and developing economies.

While the resurgence of protectionism and the renegotiation of some of the country's existing free-trade agreements have raised concerns, the momentum for global trade growth has been intensifying, as well as a positive signal to the global steel market.

A steady recovery in the steel markets of advanced economies.

The US economy continued to strengthen under the double support of strong consumer spending and rising corporate confidence, and the European Union's economic recovery continued to rise as fears of immigration policy faded. Japan's demand for steel is better than expected, thanks largely to Japan's package of policies, a boost to exports and preparations for the 2020 Olympic Games venues. South Korea's demand for steel is affected by multiple risk factors, such as high consumer debt, weak construction and a slump in the shipbuilding industry, and escalating tensions over North Korn view of the many favourable conditions, demand for steel in advanced economies is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2017, and by 0.9% in 2018.

Steel markets in developing countries will benefit from the global economic recovery and economic reforms in varying degrees.ea's nuclear weapons threat.

Many developing countries, such as Egypt, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico and India, will consolidate their growth potential for some time to come, and the continued strength of the global economy would also benefit those countries.

In 2017, India's economic activity slowed, the government's deepening reform is expected to improve the investment environment, and thus to stimulate the next few years of economic growth, however, investment activities are still driven by government projects, private enterprise investment is still affected by the high leverage rate. ASEAN, such as Vietnam and the Philippines, will continue to be the region with high demand for steel, while more mature economies such as Thailand and Malaysia will slow the growth of steel demand. Demand for steel in the CIS countries is expected to strengthen in 2017-2018, while Russia is likely to continue its slow recovery. Demand for steel in Turkey is expected to return to growth in 2018.

The Middle East and North Africa, affected by multiple factors such as low oil prices, geopolitical conflicts and high inflation, have a weak outlook for steel demand, which will boost demand in the region once the main conflict ends. GCC countries are still struggling with low oil prices. South American countries have benefited from the global economic recovery, but demand for steel has grown more slowly. The continuing slump in Brazilian construction in 2017 casts a pall over the country's steel demand recovery, with a strong recovery expected in 2018.

Steel demand in developing countries (excluding China) is forecast to grow by 2.8% in 2017 and 4.9% in 2018.

Investment confidence will boost demand for steel in the construction and machinery sectors, and demand for steel in the auto industry will grow moderately.

In developed economies, the construction industry has been slow to recover since the onset of the 2008 economic crisis, with rising incomes and increased investment confidence that have driven growth in demand for steel in residential and commercial areas. Infrastructure investment in developing countries continues to drive demand for steel and will gain additional support from the refurbishment of infrastructure in the developed world.

The demand for steel in the global auto industry was strong in 2017, especially in Turkey and Mexico. However, the U.S. and China's auto steel market is levelling off, a trend that will spread to other countries in 2018.

 

 

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